Do you like the heavy favorites in baseball? Do you like ace pitchers? The squares yes. Their eyes light up when they see an ace pitcher go, especially if the price is high against a mediocre or little-known pitcher. They think that Chris Carpenter or Randy Johnson at minus-240 offers value because they are VERY likely to win.
Let me be the first to advise you: watch out for “ace” pitchers in baseball. First of all, they are usually too expensive. Second, they are not VERY LIKELY to win as you might think. Over the course of a season, if you continuously play heavy favorites, you will almost certainly end up in the red at the end of the season.
Take for example Curt Schilling, the opening day starter for the Red Sox against the lowly Royals. Schilling, 40, was one of the favorites, but Kansas City beat him. He had no line or command. He didn’t get any breaks either, as the Royals got several hits, one just inside the base of third base. KC was lucky enough to score most of his runs on two-out hits, which is a combination of clincher and luck, and Big Schill didn’t get the support of his offense, which was anemic scoring one run.
The point is that a lot happened in that game to decide the outcome (all for the Royals) and the fact that the Red Sox had their ace on the mound didn’t matter at all. Take Chris Carpenter, the ace of the defending champion Cardinals, for example. It was a favorite opening day this week, and it was horrible, getting beaten by the Mets. Just a bad game? Well, yes, but now we’re finding out more.
The Cardinals ace will miss at least his next scheduled start against the Astros on Friday after notifying team coaches about stiffness, pain and swelling in his elbow following Sunday’s season-opening loss to the New York Mets. York. “I wish I could explain how or why, but I can’t,” Carpenter said. I’ll explain: he’s hurt! Pitchers, even great ones, get hurt all the time. Sometimes it’s a major injury, like Pedro Martinez’s last season (he won’t pitch in 2007 until around August).
Other times they are smaller, more bothersome injuries that can affect your game or control. The statement described skipping Carpenter as a “precaution.” Carpenter said he first noticed the problem Tuesday morning when he couldn’t touch his right shoulder with his right hand while trying to adjust his shirt while on the phone with her parents. That’s not good news for St. Louis. Carpenter’s 36 wins over the past two seasons are tied for the most in the majors. Including postseason appearances, he has pitched 516 2/3 innings in that span, the most in either league. He is also the anchor of a VERY young staff, which will likely test the bullpen, creating even more problems.
How about the White Sox and Jose Contreras? He is also considered an ace, but was defeated in the first match (again, as a favorite). This is also nothing new. Contreras’s man went 4-9 in the second half of last season, due to injuries. They’re counting on former ace Mark Buehrle to bounce back, but he’s off a career-worst 12-13 mark. Buerhle was a heavy favorite last season during the worst season of his 12-13 career.
This week you have seen countless examples of what I am talking about. Houston ace Roy Oswalt was the NL’s biggest favorite on opening day, but he lost to the Pirates, 4-2. Jason Jennings was almost a heavy favorite the next night, and the Astros lost again. So if you backed Houston in the first two games as 2-to-1 favorites, you’d be in a tough financial betting hole to get out of. And it’s only the first two days of the season!
The smart gambler looks for favorite and live small dogs. The live dogs would be young pitchers who you have identified as good players, although the bettors might not know it. Or average pitchers with great offenses in front of them. Or a weak pitcher on a team that plays well at home and is often a house dog, like Tampa Bay the last two years or Colorado. Baseball betting means knowing HOW to bet and WHAT to look for, and heavy favorites should be a danger zone.