Any Baccarat or Craps system should consist of two parts: a bet selection method and a money management system.

Bet selection is defined as the process of selecting the winning decision (player or banker) in baccarat or (to check or not to check) in craps. There are many methods preferred by experienced players. Some like to follow the shoe in baccarat or the roll in the dice. By this we mean that the player bets the same as the previous decision. Another favorite method of choosing which side to bet on is the decision before the end. Pattern recognition entered a lot of players as they searched for attractive patterns. The streak game has been the result of many systems in the game of baccarat.

Baccarat seems to offer the greatest hope to those inclined to mathematics. Since the game is played with a shoe that is generally not re-shuffled until a game of baccarat has been concluded. The mathematical types declare that there is dependency in the game of baccarat. Dependency means that when the first half of the baccarat shoe is played, you need to determine the composition of the second half of the baccarat shoe. So we should be able to develop some house edge in the second half of the shoe, as we already know what cards have been played in the first half of the shoe (of course we would have to follow up in some way to know this) . . Card counting, pioneered and used successfully in blackjack, was tried in baccarat. The result was slightly positive but very disappointing, as the player’s advantage was very, very slight. My advice on baccarat card counting; don’t waste your time, it won’t work.

Other methods of extracting “dependency” from the game of baccarat have been explored.

Dr. SH Johnson conducted extensive computer research using large volumes of live baccarat data. He studied thousands of recurring patterns in relation to the domain of the shoe (banker or player) at the time the pattern occurred. He was able to extract an advantage only slightly less than that created by card counting in blackjack. Dr. Johnson advises that the practical limitation of this baccarat strategy is the very rare occurrence of betting opportunities. This exhausted the casino’s patience when he took out two-thirds of a shoe before placing his lead game. The game required very large stakes and a large amount of funds to generate a modest profit. The good doctor concluded that the strategy was more of a moral victory than a practical solution to gain an advantage in the game of baccarat.

Some players take a unique approach based on the continuity of the numbers in a game of negative expectations such as the game of baccarat or the game of dice. The continuity of the concept of numbers behind this approach is demonstrated every time we analyze the data on the main frame computer. This is not to say that the concept gives you foolproof gameplay. Here is the basic idea. Let’s say we went to the casino with a group of researchers and recorded every roll of the dice at the craps table 24/7 for 6 months. That would amount to thousands of dice rolls. Just to argue, let’s say 6 months of continuous recording represents 650,000 rolls or decisions. Now let’s say an individual researcher lives to be 102 years old and for 80 years of his life he went to the casino every day of his life. Every day I recorded 10 minutes of dice rolls at the craps table (not even at the same table every day!). Let’s say for our little discussion, that the 80 years of 10 minutes a day produced the number of decisions, the same 650,000 that the group of researchers made 24/7 in 6 months.

Let’s take both sets of data and enter our computer. The computer will analyze the data against the mathematical model of the game. We will analyze the distribution of the pattern, the occurrence of numbers and all the percentages. We will calculate the casino’s advantage over the player (i.e., check the 1.42% line, don’t check 1.40%, etc.). The computer shakes for a few minutes and spits out the two reports; Report 1- the “24/7 for 6-month data” and Report 2- the “10 minutes per day for 80-year data.” What do you think the difference will be? ANY !! That’s right, the stats and the numbers will be the same.

Well what can we learn from this? As players, we play only one great game of dice and one great game of baccarat (if those are your games) in our lifetime. You form a continuity of numbers that throughout the life of your game will always try to adjust to the morphology of the game or the mathematical distribution. At any given time, various aspects (patterns and numbers) will be deviated from their normal mathematical distribution in the game. For example, let’s say in our lifetime game we’ve played 1,000,000 hands of baccarat. We know this because we record all those suckers on score cards and enter them into our computer after each game session. [the pros call this procedure “cataloging their game”]

Every night after entering his data, the player turns on his trusty computer analysis program. A report is derived; discover, for example, that the patterns of seven banking decisions in a row are 6 standard deviations behind in the occurrence of “their game.” The professional gamer has a coveted strategy for playing the deviations in his game. He knows that the deviation is going to revert to equipartition eventually. IT ALWAYS DOES, eventually! Don’t run to the casino yet. The big question is how long will the pattern be absent before it begins to return to the normal distribution model of the game?

NO, I will not give you the answer. Something to think about, huh? Interestingly, the player does not consider a game to be a baccarat shoe or two hours of craps but the complete continuity of all the decisions he has played. FACT: This is YOUR game; the only game you can play. You could say, this triggers the idea that we often hear … “my system may not win in the long run, but I’m only going to play a couple of hours a day so that doesn’t matter.” In these negative expectation casino games, you cannot escape the continuity of numbers due to increasing exposure to the game. Billion dollar casinos are built each year on the unassailable morphology of these negative expectation games (reserving the baccarat dependency argument and that strategy you can develop!)

We suggest that you begin the design and testing of your baccarat or craps system by concentrating on your betting selection methodology. By that I mean, while testing your strategy, use a flat bet or neutral money management. A flat bet means that the bet is the same amount on each baccarat hand or on each roll of the dice. You can’t beat a set of negative expectations with money management. In the long run, your bet selection should produce more winning than losing hands or spins. When the player achieves this, we say that they have a positive expectation or player advantage over the casino. When the player has the upper hand, almost any type of money management will work. However, let us repeat this again, if there is no advantage to the player in the selection of the bet, the lack of a money management system, no matter how smart, will turn a negative expectation into a positive expectation.

Can we keep playing even if we don’t have a positive advantage? YES! It’s called gambling. When you have a player advantage, it really isn’t a game, is it? Most recreational players play without a player advantage. The system you play in and the way you manage your money are essential if you want to have good winning sessions and not lose all your money every time you go to the casino. You could actually be a lifetime winner without a player advantage if you went to the casino table, had an incredible lucky streak (happens), pushed (progressed) your bets to the max. When you have $ 35,000 ahead of you, you quit and never play again! Congratulations, you just kicked the butt out of the casino! This is not going to happen with most of us. We will be back! We better develop a system that is advantageous or close to it and have a money management system that limits our exposure to just a small percentage of our budget.

Most professional players use a percentage money management system. These systems are based on extreme discipline and constant monitoring of equity. Only a predetermined percentage of the changing bankroll is wagered. Learn the game you play, learn the system you play, and then learn discipline, then learn discipline, then learn discipline … yes, it’s that important. If he can’t learn to control his emotions, he will self-destruct at the gaming table. If you can’t control your impulses and emotions, don’t waste time playing games. You are embarking on a great challenge. Like anything else worth doing, you must pay your fair share. Then and only then can you become one of the few true winners! Enjoy!

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